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constitutional reforms, Economy, Global Politics, good governance, Human rights, Left Platform, Politics

Iran – Oil – Rajapakses On The Run

By Kumar David-

Prof.Kumar David

A hornet’s nest of connected issues is exploding. If Israel attacks Iran what will happen in the Middle East and to oil prices? If not what will happen to oil prices? The Rajapakse government is under attack on all sides and is crumbling; can we make any sensible predictions even six months ahead? I think this is the time to analyze, understand and act.

The US does not want Israel to attack Iran because the consequences in the Middle East cannot be foreseen. Israel is determined, whatever the risk, to end Iran’s nuclear programme and maintain its nuclear monopoly in the region. The US is bent on ending Iran’s nuclear ambitions by threats, sanctions, strangling the Iranian economy, even regime change, but forestalling an Israeli attack. Because of the  absurd US-Israel relationship and ridiculous American public attitudes, all US presidents and houses of congress are terrified of losing elections if they seem to be anti-Israeli.

Iran will not stop its nuclear programme; it is developing a bomb, and irrespective what the Non- Proliferation Treaty says, it should not stop. At least one Islamic country in the Middle East must have a bomb since Israel has a lethal arsenal of 200; otherwise it is suicide. Iran should end its programme only if nuclear weapons are eliminated in the entire Middle East, including Israel. Sure it is better if that country is a democracy like Turkey or a future democratic Egypt, but that option is not within anyone’s control.

It is not possible to predict the big picture, but for Lanka the oil shock will worsen. Because US sanctions can close down our international banking system, we are begging for permission to buy Iranian oil. The Sapugaskanda refinery is tuned for Iranian crude and this is 90% of our supply. If the US gives exemption it will still insist on reduction of imports over time. World oil price may stay over 100 dollars a barrel or even increase.

Oil prices did not increase suddenly; the government suddenly withdrew the subsidy on kerosene and diesel. This and rupee devaluation are leading to steep increases of all prices. Public unrest is worsening and the popularity of the government plummeting. I told the Sinhalese people over and over again, that once the State had finished off the Tamils it will turn its guns on them; at the time they did not care, but now see what’s happening! Wimal Warnakulasuriya, brother-in-law of Anthony Fernando who was shot dead in Chilaw, wails: “They (STF and Police) treated us like LTTE cadres; they attacked us with the same mindset”. Do I need to say more?

It is clear that the Rajapakse regime has capitulated to the visiting US team lead by Otero and Blake. Some say an agreement may be arrived with the TNA, and some LLRC Recommendations implemented. Unbelievably, the army has changed its tune and said: “Some civilians may have been shot as they were captured or surrendered”. A military court of inquiry has been appointed.

This is all an unbelievable upside-down and inside-out somersault by the government. A comrade asked me: “Hey, will the government last six months?” I don’t know but it is time for action to strengthen mass protest movements, demilitarize the whole country, and devolve power to the provinces including the North and East.

Article is provided by Team Anik Pituwa

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Discussion

22 thoughts on “Iran – Oil – Rajapakses On The Run

  1. A factual analysis. Well done!!!

    Posted by Tony | March 14, 2012, 1:22 pm
    • Rubbish! India is going to pay for Iranian oil in rupees or in kind. The Rajapakses are not “On the run” just because one fool thinks they are. A team of people well educated on the last stages of our “war on terrorism” will counter the US and the BTF and GTF. US drone attacks on the tribals areas has killed hundreds of civilians in West Pakistan and East Afghanistan. These people are from the Pashtun tribe and are not likely to stop attcking the US and NATO forces and we have now come to a stage where the US and NATO forces claim to have fulfilled their missions claiming the Afghan security forces can now counter the Taliban. Horse dung. They are leaving with their tails between their legs despite all the “star wars” weaponary they have at their disposal. US Military Experts say that they needed “more boots on the ground” and complain about the terrain the Taliban are fighting from: “Too rugged and too many caves”. Now why did they not get military maps on the terrain before they went in to avenge 9/11.They also blame Pakistan for allowing Taliban rebels movement to and fro.They ahve committed crimes not just against Humanity but also against the souvereign State of Pakistan not getting permission before they launched their drone striklkes that killed women and children yet no Taliban fighters.
      How can these people ask the Srim Lankan Government to give any “explanation” about Tamil civilians when the Sri Lankan Government was faced with terrorists.
      Kumar Samuel should remember that the price of oil has fluctuated since the Arabs gained Indepedence and Israel was created. The US and UK have lied throughout the years to “safe guard” their interests in other words the oil producers who bootlick the US and UK. The Russians and the Chinese with the Brazilians will safeguard the rights of countries like Iran and Sri Lanka and the Rajapakses will rule for many more years to come whether the BTF, the GTF the UK,USA and Kumar Samuel wants them to or not.

      Posted by Peter Casie Chetty | March 14, 2012, 5:53 pm
  2. I feel compelled to write when I see such distorted nonsense made in the comments section. There are three reasons for the rise in oil prices. Increasing demand from the BRIC countries are out stripping supply. Oil reserves are over stated and peak oil may have been reached. Speculation in the futures market by the corrupt American Banks which are allowed to drive up prices to the tune of 30% artificially after rules preventing speculation in the futures market by banks were removed by the US government. Israel’s threat to bomb Iran is the third reason. This threat will be carried out whether you like it or not. Knowing all this we foolishly bought oil from Iran and even tried to get the refinery upgraded by them when we should have as a top priority upgraded the refinery without wasting money on useless and waste full projects while diversifying our oil imports. But we did nothing of the sort. Massive unpaid fuel bills to the CPC by two airlines and the CEB is the other reason we are at this point. Sri Lanka is not India and the USA is the largest economy and military power in the world. Face reality and stop this grand delusion that we can do as we please. Sri Lanka is a small insignificant mole where the USA is concerned that is the reality. Try this for might eleven Air craft carrier groups-USA. How many aircraft carriers does Russia and China have? One each!

    Posted by Mark | March 14, 2012, 11:19 pm
    • Your comment too is not without distorted nonsense. The main reason at present for the high oil prices is the instability in regeon,affected supply from Iran due to sanctions and unrest in Libiya,Syria,Bahrain,Egypt and Iraq etc. Bush senior,junior and now B(H)arak Obama doing thier best to keep it that way. Most probably they get paid for their services by the royals who are the real beneficiaries of hightned oil prices. If israel decides to bomb Iran it will be the begining of the end for Israel. We have been buying oil from iran since 60’s(I think) and they are the only one’s give us on credit and that too without interest for three months. They buy our tea as well. America should compensate us for the loss of trade as they charged compensation from Iraq. Upgrading the refinary would have started already if not for the US sanctions on Iran. Now the Indians and the chinese had openly said they are not going to abide by the sanctions,we can see now what the almighty US is going to do about that? Ah yes, they can bring a resolution against Sri Lanka! The largest military power in the world! my foot! they are running like chickens from Afganistan. The chinese are smart unlike the stupid Americans. They are not wasting money on aircraft carriers which are sitting ducks any way. The have developed carries busters which are much cheaper and more effective. It is mistake to think that we are insignificant. we are small but never insignificant. The Americans dirty poking finger amply demonstrate that.

      Posted by NAK | March 15, 2012, 7:48 am
      • You can argue with your anti American rhetoric but the facts are facts. We have a refinery that cannot refine any other oil but Iranian. We then turn to the same Iranians who even by then were being threatend with sanctions for an upgrade. Anyone with half a brain could see where that was going to end up. No one likes the way the world works I certainly do not but it is incumbent for the leaders of our country to deal with these situations wisely. They have not and trying to cover it up by blasting away at the Americans is nothing but foolish. Robert Reich has an excellent article in the Huffington post regarding the speculation of oil prices follow the link below if anyone is interest in facts!
        http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/obama-gas-prices_b_1350358.html

        Posted by Mark | March 16, 2012, 7:20 am
  3. OIl price hike is in addition to the all the reasons given is that the real value of the Dollar has fallen because they are printing dollars like the blazers. No country can sustain any economy if it cannot tackle the trade deficit,fiscal deficit etc borrowing money and printing money is not the answer.

    Posted by vasantha | March 15, 2012, 12:40 am
  4. Prof. Kumar analyses it with his Socialists ideology.But Dr Arujuna Sivananthan analyses it in Neo-Liberal way. read;
    The Oil Price Shock
    http://colombotelegraph.com/2012/02/25/the-oil-price-shock/

    Posted by Darshana | March 15, 2012, 12:47 am
    • each time i used to read smaller articles or reviews which as well clear their motive, and that is also happening with this article which I’am reading at this place.

      Posted by Harsha - Japan | March 15, 2012, 1:32 am
  5. Sri Lanka was doing quite well during the CFA, until the Rajapaekse fascists came on the scene. It would have been better to make peace with the Tigers and let the Tamil diaspora invest their money in the development of “Eelam.” Now, of course, the Tigers are gone and development rights have been sold almost exclusively to China, with the Rajapakses and their select few associates pocketing huge commissions. Ironically, China is also providing the high-interest loans for these projects, which means SL in will be in debt for a long time to come.

    Posted by Devinda Fernando | March 15, 2012, 1:17 am
  6. Very good analysis comrade Kumara. well done!

    Posted by unanthanna | March 15, 2012, 1:30 am
  7. Great article! I loved the insight and the advice given . Additionally, your writing style is very fun to read.

    Posted by neena | March 15, 2012, 1:31 am
  8. Kumar David a Tamil tiger journalist seems all lost at sea.Don’t you have better ideas in bashing Srilanka?Anyway keep on your negative reporting.When did the Tamil tiger terrorists talk anything positive?I can understand David’s hatred considering how the Ealam dream vanished into thin air at Nandikadal.
    Mark,Vasantha,Devinda,Neena,Unanthanna, all non Tamil names.Why is that these Tiger terrorists don’t use their own Tamil names.Of course what else can we expect from coward Tamil Tiger terrorists?

    Posted by Max Silva | March 15, 2012, 2:25 am
  9. Mahinda and Ghotabaya rajapaksha are the heros who brought peace and harmoney to Sri lanka. We Sri lankan know what was the reality in the country for last thirty years better than anybody else. Where were those peace lovers, human right champions when the LTTE terrorist digging mass graves for our kids, pregnant women? After root out LTTE what kind of change we have obtained. go and see how lankans are celebrating their peace together. Even with rehabilitated LTTE combatants. Don’t try to make the world fool by these type of artices. WE KNOW THE HUMAN RIGHTS AND WE KNOW THE TRUTH TOO.

    Posted by Chandana | March 15, 2012, 5:31 am
  10. Hello Dr, Kumar,

    You have selected well drive to express your bullet point via crude Oil. I have a feels that your some pointing is turning and having some hidden agenda such mentioning by ” I told the Sinhalese people over and over again”, is giving multiple misunderstandings to community via unofficial dividends of Sri Lankan living as two parts as Tamil and Sinhalese. We are all Sri Lankan living under one shelter, territory. I don’t think it is better idea to use such double meaning words in this moment. I suppose your dirty mind have done well back push and hint for Human rights team saying “the green lights is still on go ahead with Human right complain against to Sri Lanka”. The Sri Lanka government was fighting only against terrorism, not with Tamil people. FYI

    Posted by Ajith | March 15, 2012, 5:56 am
  11. Prof David want the break up of Sri Lanka and creation of Elam that would be stronger than Elam. This is what Mr Prabakaran also wanted. We all know where he got to!

    Posted by Dr.Chula Rajapakse MNZM | March 15, 2012, 6:17 am
  12. Prof. David talks tongue in cheek. Everybody knows that American politicians pander to the Jewish lobby ‘cos its their money that talks not public opinion. The real American public opinion is out on the street now as wall street movement but these politicians don’t give damn. This government has many problems of their own making and otherwise but it is ok for the prof. to think that this government is about to fall if it comforts him.

    Posted by NAK | March 15, 2012, 8:17 am
  13. Kumar Daivd is pupet of US and UK. He seems to be Trostkst of left politics,but he is adament support for LTTE politis in Sri Lanka.After Prabarkan died majority Tamils have hidden sympath for Tamil cause and Parbarkan.Kumar David too. He is no socialist.He is awating for downfall of Sinhalese sate.
    Awating for to be Expolit situation to build ELEAM STATE IN NORTH-EAST.

    Posted by D.A Ranawake | March 15, 2012, 1:51 pm
  14. Professor, Now you have to sit and wait peacefully at home and not comment on world affairs. Iran
    having a nuke is equal to a monkey having a razor. Now Iran ( monkey ) is going to posses the razor
    and very soon the monkey is going to use the razor all over and probably monkey might cut his own genital with the razor. Before that somebody must stop the monkey having a razor.

    Posted by Desapriya | March 15, 2012, 5:52 pm

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